Oscar Preview and Prediction Post 2008

Well, there's a lot to get to, so let's get down to business, shall we?

First off, the big intrigue of the night for me is how will Wolverine (I mean Hugh Jackman) do as the host?  It seems like an odd choice, but I actually think that he will do a good job.  That being said, I do love me some Jon Stewart and wouldn't mind his returning for another spin!  Just so you know, while having never hosted the Oscars, Wolverine (I mean Hugh Jackman) did host the Tony's so he has some experience with the whole big awards show thing.

On to the categories...

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The nominees...

Richard Jenkins-The Visitor
Frank Langella-Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn-Milk
Brad Pitt-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke-The Wrestler

Popular opinion is with Rourke here and he certainly did a fantastic job.  I agree that he will probably win best actor, but this year the award should go to Sean Penn for what was the best performance he has ever given.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Josh Brolin-Milk
Robert Downey Jr-Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman-Doubt
Heath Ledger-The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon-Revolutionary Road

I would pick Ledger here even without the fact that he died.  The Joker is a very iconic character that it is hard to take and make your own, but Ledger did that, and he did it in a way that created one of the scariest characters ever to grace the big screen.  Just like with Bardem last year, when you do that you deserve Oscar Gold.  And he'll get it.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Anne Hathaway-Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie-Changeling
Melissa Leo-Frozen River
Meryl Streep-Doubt
Kate Winslet-The Reader

It will be Kate Winslet's first Oscar after many nominations.  She was very good in this hit and miss picture and has always been strong.  It will be one of those awards that is rewarding her career almost more then the role she wins it for.  I don't have to big of a problem with that, it was a down year for roles for leading actresses.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams-Doubt
Penelope Cruz-Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis-Doubt
Taraji P. Henson-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei-The Wrestler

Really the most intriguing category of the night.  I could make a case for any and all of them.  I think Taraji P. Henson deserves the award and so I'll go ahead and predict she'll win it, but none of these would surprise me.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Bolt
Kung-Fu Panda
WALL-E

Obviously WALL-E deserves to win and I think that it will, but let me tell you right now, there could easily be an upset right here.  Kung-Fu Panda has a legitimate shot to shock the world.  If it happens, don't say I didn't warn you.

ART DIRECTION

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

This is a two picture race.  If Benjamin Button is going to have a huge night, here's one place you'll be able to tell.  My money, however, is on The Dark Knight.  A lot of people (read: Academy Voters) feel that The Dark Knight should have gotten a Best Picture Nomination, that makes it an automatic favorite in every category as people vote for it to get the consolation prize as it were.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

This is only one where Dark Knight is up for the award where I would frankly be a little shocked if it won.  This is mainly between the two favorites for Best Picture, Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire.  If Millionaire wins you can turn off your tv and go to sleep knowing that it will also win Director and Picture.  Benjamin Button should win this award and probably will, but if that happens, Millionaire will still have a shot at Best Picture.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

I'll just go ahead and tell you Man On Wire will and should win.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A category with lots of surprises in its history.  Won't be one this time, look for a win for Waltz With Bashir.

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will probably win here (and should), but you can't count out Dark Knight.  Iron Man gets the nomination in a "thanks for playing" kind of way, it doesn't have a shot.

FILM EDITING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

If it isn't The Dark Knight it'll be either Button or Millionaire and you can use that as a clue for who will end up victorious on the night.

ORIGINAL SCORE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

WALL-E actually has a shot to take this one, and probably should.  Otherwise, it will go to whichever of the two Best Picture Favorites is shaping up to have the big night.

SCREENPLAY ADAPTED

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Four of these are up for Best Picture and one of two of them will win Best Picture.  That's also the one that will take this prize.  Whichever wins between Button and Millionaire will also win Best Picture.  Look at my prediction for Best Picture to see my prediction for this category.



Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Brags
Milk
WALL-E

It should be Milk, I think that it will be WALL-E and there's nothing wrong with that.

DIRECTING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button-David Fincher
Frost/Nixon-Ron Howard
Milk-Gus Van Sant
The Reader-Stephen Daldry
Slumdog Millionaire-Danny Boyle

Again, chances are good that the winner of this also wins Best Picture.  The exception is when it is an extremely close race, so if Button is winning some and Millionaire is winning some and neither has a clear edge then there is a good chance that this and Best Picture will split.  That being said, my prediction for this will be the same as my prediction for Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture.  I don't want to spoil it.  You're almost there.

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

A fantastic film and my favorite film of the year.  It does an amazing job of being incredibly touching without becoming overly sentimental.  It is expertly handled all the way around and is extremely original in an era when so many films seem repetitive.

Frost/Nixon

I thought it was a fine, fun picture.  There were some historical inaccuracies made in the spirit of making the film more entertaining, which is fine, but it also threw me out of the film enough to keep it from being one of my favorites.  The acting was sensational, however.

Milk

A beautiful, powerful, and timely film that educated as well as entertained.  It's also heartbreaking, but in a real world sort of way.  I can handle sentimentality when it is from real stories.  The performances in this movie were the best of the year in any film.  I wish that more people had seen this amazing movie.

The Reader

This film felt off to me.  It was almost like two different movies that were stuck together in detriment to both films.  The first half of the film is about one thing and the second half is something else entirely.  The second half of the film was far more interesting then the first, and since the film made use of flashbacks to tell its story anyway, they should have had events from the second half shading events occurring in the first half to give the film some sort of cohesiveness.  This could have been fantastic, instead it was kind of okay.

Slumdog Millionaire

I truly don't understand why people like this movie.  I couldn't stand it.  First of all, I hated Who Wants To Be A Millionaire when it was on tv, it's forced suspense annoyed the crap out of me, to base a movie on that is just as wrong as I would have guessed.  Add to that the premise, that an uneducated kid from the slums of Mumbai would know the answers to every question asked because every question asked corresponded to an event in his life is simply a premise that I can not suspend enough disbelief to grasp.  It is even worse then accepting all of the coincidences that took place in Crash.  And then finally there is the harsh and untrue image that the film gives India.  Every review that I've read of the film from India hates the movie as the country is far more then gangsters and slumdogs.  Not only does this film literally put its main character through crap, but it manages to make the Taj Mahal look dirty.  It's a shame that people who see this movie are using it to color their whole view of the country.  The only part of the movie that I liked was the musical number during the closing credits.

So, obviously I think that Benjamin Button should win; sadly, I think that Slumdog Millionaire will win and ultimately it will be considered the worst movie ever to win Best Picture.  I'm hoping that I'm wrong and Benjamin Button will end up victorious, but I wouldn't put any money on it.

Until Next Time, what do you think will be the biggest upset of the night?  Which movie do you think should win Best Picture and what actually will?  And how do you think Wolverine (I mean Hugh Jackman) will do as host?