Oscar Preview and Prediction Post 2007

There are a lot of categories, so let's get down to it, shall we?

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The nominations are

George Clooney - MICHAEL CLAYTON

Daniel Day-Lewis - THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Johnny Depp - SWEENY TODD THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET

Tommy Lee Jones - IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH

Viggo Mortenson - EASTERN PROMISES

There really isn't a question here.  As I said in my Top Ten Post yesterday, Daniel Day-Lewis's performance will go down as one of the greatest ever taking a completely unlikable character and making him riveting to watch.  Day-Lewis should and will win.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The nominations are

Cate Blanchett - ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE

Julie Christie - AWAY FROM HER

Marion Cotillard - LA VIE EN ROSE

Laura Linney - THE SAVAGES

Ellen Page - JUNO

Julie Christie is far and away the favorite here, and definitely the safe bet if you're picking to impress, but Oscar has surprises every year, and overall, there aren't many places for surprises this year.  This however is a possible spot for a shocker, therefore, I'm going out on a limb and predicting the shocker.  Most people will tell you it will be Julie Christie, I'm however going with the young and talented newcomer Ellen Page, and actually think that if it's not her then Marion Cotillard will win.  I'm picking Ellen Page, but predicting that it won't be Christie giving us our big surprise of the night.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The nominations are

Casey Affleck - THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD

Javier Bardem - NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Philip Seymour Hoffman - CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR

Hal Holbrook - INTO THE WILD

Tom Wilkinson - MICHAEL CLAYTON

First of all, let me say that Tom Wilkinson was about the only good thing about Michael Clayton, he was tremendous.  Any other year, I'd say that Casey Affleck was going to win this category considering his performance was beyond brilliant, but again, there really isn't a question this year in this category.  Javier Bardem embodies the killer in No Country for Old Men so completely and gives us the single scariest villain in film history.  In return, we can only give him the Oscar.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Nominees are

Cate Blanchette - I'M NOT THERE

Ruby Dee - AMERICAN GANGSTER

Saoirse Ronan - ATONEMENT

Amy Ryan - GONE BABY GONE

Tilda Swinton - MICHAEL CLAYTON

Honestly, I'm not sure why Tilda Swinton got nominated, surely there were better actresses in supporting roles, Michelle Pfeiffer was great in Stardust, and Chloe Sevigny was brilliant in Zodiac.  It's not that I don't think Swinton is a fine actress, but her character was so ridiculous I'm not sure any actress would have done well in the role.  Amy Ryan was very good as was the young Saoirse Ronan, but my feeling is that Cate Blanchette in the role of Bob Dylan will win this one like a rolling stone.  (That's in reference to a Bob Dylan song, in case you didn't get it.)

ANIMATED FEATURE

The nominees are

PERSEPOLIS

RATATOUILLE

SURF'S UP

None of these films should have received a nomination, but since they did all get nominations and they are the movies we have to choose from, your winner will be Ratatouille.

ART DIRECTION

The nominees are

AMERICAN GANGSTER

ATONEMENT

THE GOLDEN COMPASS

SWEENY TODD THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET

THERE WILL BE BLOOD

There will be an Oscar for There Will Be Blood.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The nominees are

THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD

ATONEMENT

THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Two of these films, Assassination and No Country  had the same cinematographer, Roger Deakins, and he will win an Oscar this year.  It probably should be for Assassination, but it will ultimately be for No Country.

COSTUME DESIGN

The nominees are

ACROSS THE UNIVERSE

ATONEMENT

ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE

LA VIE EN ROSE

SWEENY TODD THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET

I think that this Oscar will probably go to Elizabeth.  Oscar loves this time period, and not much of this film was Oscar worthy, but I think they'll honor the one part that was.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The nominees are

NO END IN SIGHT

OPERATION HOMECOMING: WRITING THE WARTIME EXPERIENCE

SICKO

TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE

WAR/DANCE

I'm holding out hope that Sicko will win this year, and I think that it has a chance just because it's the only non Iraq war related nominee.  Michael Moore won just a few years ago, however, and a lot of people really dislike him, so that could hurt his chances.  If it isn't Moore, my money is on War/Dance.

FILM EDITING

The nominees are

THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM

THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY

INTO THE WILD

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

THERE WILL BE BLOOD

I think that Roderick Jaynes will win an editing Oscar here, the question is will they hand out two Oscars for Roderick Jaynes or make the Coen Brothers (since Joel and Ethan together are Roderick Jaynes) share this one? In either case, No Country continues its strong night.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The nominees are

BEAUFORT

THE COUNTERFEITERS

KATYN

MONGOL

12

The Counterfeiters, although that is the only one with any buzz whatsoever, which makes it a pretty easy guess to make.

MAKEUP

The nominees are

LA VIE EN ROSE

NORBIT

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END

Just looking at the nominees should let you know who will win, La Vie en Rose.

ORIGINAL SCORE

The nominees are

ATONEMENT

THE KITE RUNNER

MICHAEL CLAYTON

RATATOUILLE

3:10 TO YUMA

Definitely, one of the best parts of the movie Atonement is the score, and I predict it will get it's lone win in this category, mainly because Jonny Greenwood's score for There Will Be Blood was determined not to meet the requirements as an "Original" Score.

ORIGINAL SONG

The nominees are

"Falling Slowly" - ONCE

"Happy Working Song" - ENCHANTED

"Raise It Up" - AUGUST RUSH

"So Close" - ENCHANTED

"That's How You Know" - ENCHANTED

A long time ago, this was one of my favorite categories (and I still hold out hopes that one day a song I write will win an Original Song Oscar), but of late this category has gotten old.  First of all, I don't like that they do all of the songs together.  Even when they don't do that, they do it at just two separate points with three songs together at one point and the other two together at one point.  I think the Original Song nominees should be spaced out throughout the show the way it used to be.  I also think that each movie should be only allowed to be nominated for one song rather then one film getting three nominations.  (Last year, that film was Dreamgirls, this year it is Enchanted.)  In any case, the song "Falling Slowly" will win the Oscar this year, as Once is a critically acclaimed film and this is its only nomination.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The nominees are

FREEHELD

LA CORONA (THE CROWN)

SALIM BABA

SARI'S MOTHER

I'm picking Sari's Mother since it's about an Iraqi woman (big subject) who has a son with AIDS (big subject).

SHORT FILM - ANIMATED

The nominees are

I MET THE WALRUS

MADAME TULI-PUTLI

MEME LES PIGEONS VONT AU PARADIS (EVEN PIGEONS GO TO HEAVEN)

MY LOVE (MOYA LYUBOV)

PETER & THE WOLF

I'm going with I Met the Walrus simply because it's about an interview with John Lennon, and how can you go against the Beatles?

SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION

The nominees are

AT NIGHT

IL SUPPLENTE (THE SUBSTITUTE)

LE MOZART DES PICKPOCKETS (THE MOZART OF PICKPOCKETS)

TANGHI ARGENTINI

THE TONTO WOMAN

It is hard to get this one right, it is almost always the most difficult to predict (along with the Short Animated), I'm picking The Tonto Woman, because I heard it's based on an Elmore Leonard story, and I love Elmore Leonard.

SOUND EDITING

The nominees are

THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

RATATOUILLE

THERE WILL BE BLOOD

TRANSFORMERS

A few years ago, King Kong won a crap load of Oscars despite being a horrible film, I have a feeling that Transformers might do the same (although, to be fair, it was much better then King Kong).  If No Country doesn't sweep all 8 awards, look for a win for Transformers here and in

SOUND MIXING

The nominees are

THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

RATATOUILLE

3:10 TO YUMA

TRANSFORMERS

If you didn't get my segue, I was predicting that Transformers could win here too.  I'll let you in on a secret, whoever wins one will win the other.  It almost always happens that way.  No Country does have a chance to sweep out though.  If it wins both of these, it won't lose in a single category.

VISUAL EFFECTS

The nominees are

THE GOLDEN COMPASS

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END

TRANSFORMERS

At least the effects in Transformers were good, unlike King Kong when they were almost as bad as the movie itself.  The 1933 version had better effects in my opinion.  Of these nominees, though, I don't have a problem with Transformers winning.

SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL

The nominees are

JUNO

LARS AND THE REAL GIRL

MICHAEL CLAYTON

RATATOUILLE

THE SAVAGES

Not even a contest.  Former stripper Diablo Cody will now have to be described as former stripper and Oscar winner Diable Cody.  Juno wins easily.

SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED

The nominees are

ATONEMENT

AWAY FROM HER

THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

THERE WILL BE BLOOD

The winner of this will win Best Picture, and I predict that movie will be No Country for Old Men.

DIRECTING

The nominees are

Julian Schnabel - THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY

Jason Reitman - JUNO

Tony Gilroy - MICHAEL CLAYTON

Joel and Ethan Coen - NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Paul Thomas Anderson - THERE WILL BE BLOOD

It is rare that a directing duo wins an Oscar, in fact, I can't recall it ever happening before, although they have occasionally been nominated (including last year for Little Miss Sunshine).  Look for that to change tonight, the Coen brothers are going to need some new shelf space for all of the Oscars they will win this year.

BEST PICTURE

The nominees are

First let me give you my thoughts on the two movies I haven't talked about already in my Top Ten and Honorable Mention Post from yesterday.

ATONEMENT -

This was an interesting film, and I simply loved the ending.  I'm still not sold on Keira Knightley as an actress.  Sure she's beautiful, but she's never blown me away in a role and this movie is no exception.  The rest of the cast is very good, however.  There is a great tracking shot about halfway through the film.  It is an amazingly well executed shot.  The score is hauntingly beautiful and very effective.  All of these pluses, however, are ruined by the fact that a sitcom-like cliche is what Robert McKee would call the Inciting Incident, and that ruins the whole film for me.

MICHAEL CLAYTON

This movie is simply horrible.  I didn't like it at all.  It's boring, it uses cheap story tricks to try to keep you interested, it seems like a lot of the main actors don't really want to be in the movie at all, Tom Wilkinson being the one exception, relishing his role as the one interesting character in the entire boring movie.  George Clooney, who is a great actor and much better in most everything else he's done, as the title character never seems to give us a good idea of who he is and what he stands for, making it hard to really care what decisions he makes, and seeing as it is through him we follow the action (if you can call it that) of the film, the movie suffers greatly.  How this movie got nominated at all surprises me.  Why, oh why, did the Academy forget Zodiac?

JUNO

THERE WILL BE BLOOD

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

If you've read this far, you probably have an idea of what I'm predicting will win, No Country for Old Men.  It's possible that There Will Be Blood will shock us all, but I highly doubt it.  This will probably go as predicted and this will be one of the least surprising Oscars of all time.

Tune in on Monday for my Third Annual Thoughts As I Had Them During The Oscars Post and we'll see how I did.

Until Next Time, I'll be watching LOST a little late tonight as I will be watching the debate of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama from our state capital, Austin, Texas.  I just wish I could be watching it in person instead of on television in the metroplex.