Really, I don't know why I love the Oscars so much, after all, I'm generally very disappointed in the outcomes. I mean I know that I majored in film, but really, are the Oscars something I should devote any energy to whatsoever? Unlike some people I don't give a crap about the wardrobes of those nominated, and I never watch the red carpet. I know many people for whom this is all there is to care about, but for me, I care about the films. Maybe I like it because I can get so worked up about it, since the Oscars so rarely get it right.
First of all, it's important to understand that the Oscars are very political, and the awards don't actually go to the most deserving. I'm not speaking of political in the "the President is an idiot, but at least he didn't shoot anyone" sense of political, but in the inner workings of Hollywood sense of political. (Excluding a few cases such as Marlon Brando and Micheal Moore, but I digress). Remember, the Oscars gave an award for best actor to Russell Crowe for his portrayal of a gladiator in the aptly titled film, Gladiator. Really, what in that film did he do that was so special? Yell? Who can't do that, really? That award was actually for the portrayal one year before in the Insider, a much more deserving part. For those who think he actually won for Gladiator, need I remind you that also in the best actor category that year was an actor who for an hour and a half shared the screen with only a volleyball? And made it interesting? Politics.
With that in mind, I will give a few predictions for this years Oscar telecast...
It's really a two film race between Brokeback Mountain and Crash. Capote, Good Night and Good Luck, and Munich are just there for the parties. While, in my opinion, Capote is the best of the five nominated, only Brokeback and Crash really have a chance. Unlike in recent years, all five films are actually good, but I find it hard to believe that Syriana and Walk the Line were left off. If I had to replace two of the nominees to correct this error, I would say Crash and Munich should go. While both are good films, they aren't really Best Picture films. And that is sad, because I think Crash has a legitimate shot at winning. Ultimately though, I think the Oscar will go to Brokeback Mountain.
Here, there are three actors with a real chance. Heath Ledger (who would have believed that a year ago?), Phillip Seymore Hoffman (who many consider due), and Joaquin Pheonix. It's probably going to be Phillip Seymore Hoffman for Capote. Oscar loves it when you play a real person (which is why Pheonix has a real shot), and they love to give it to great actors who have been to often overlooked. So despite all the hype over Brokeback (being another great predictor of Oscar wins), Hoffman gets the nod.
Here we have two contenders. Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Huffman. It will be close. Oscar loves it when you play way against type, and Felicity Huffman, one of t.v.'s desperate housewives, as a transgendered person certainly qualifies. I believe Politics will play a role here, however. Witherspoon will win for her role in a film many (not just me) believe should have gotten a nomination for best picture, the best actress win will be a sort of parting gift.
I don't even think this one is close. Paul Giamatti will win for Cinderella Man. Although much like his co-star in that film, he won't really win it for this role. It will be an Oscar one year later for his role in Sideways.
Like in the lead actress role, I believe that the winner here will be in the parting gift variety to the film. Racheal Weisz will win for Constant Gardener which many thought should have gotten more notice then it did. If not Weisz, the Oscar will go to Michelle Williams who was really good in Brokeback Mountain as Ennis' long suffering wife. She's come a long way from Dawson's Creek.
Rarely does the winner of best picture not also win best director. Also the winner of the Directors Guild Award often wins this award. Due to that my prediction should be Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain. I've got a strange feeling about Crash, though. I already said it could surprise for Best Picture, I'm going to go ahead and predict that Paul Haggis does surprise here and win for Best Director.
Crash is almost certain here, with an outside chance for Syriana because it didn't get a best picture nod.
Brokeback has a real shot, but I wouldn't be that surprised by Capote getting the nod. I'd love it if Constant Gardener somehow pulled out the win. That was a great script.
Who said that the traditional cartoon is dead? Okay, so only one of the three nominees is a traditional hand animated film, but none of them are computer animated, which means for the first time a non-computer animated film will win the award. Sorry Hauru No Ugoku Shiro (or Howl's Moving Castle), but a claymation film will win. Don't get too excited, Tim Burton; it will be Wallace and Gromit.
Bonus award, special effects,
Chronicles of Narnia, because Aslan looked amazing and Kong looked fake.
Well, watch Sunday and see how I do, but don't call me and tell me during the Oscars I will be working. I'll be taping it.
Until next time, remember it's okay to yell at the television when the wrong movie wins an Oscar
Thursday, March 2, 2006
Oscars Preview and Prediction Post 2005
Posted by Josh Man at 3:08 PM
Labels: Oscars, Predictions
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